ATL

Wales

The year ahead could hold troubled times for Welsh education

This academic year is going to be affected by three external events. There will be: first, a Westminster election; second, the initial 'cuts' digging into public spending; and lastly, if he sticks to his original timetable, Rhodri Morgan will no longer be Wales' First Minister.

All three will have significant impact on the education landscape in Wales. A new First Minister will probably want a Cabinet reshuffle; a different Westminster government of a different political hue would make the English education agenda even more divergent from that of Wales, but it's the budget cuts that will be most noticeable.

The 'years of plenty' may be over for education in the UK as a whole but, as Wales never really experienced those, the 'years of famine' could be even more catastrophic. Our school building stock is scandalously shabby compared to that on the other side of Offa's Dyke. Education programmes have received nothing like the funding they should have, and school budgets are now stretched to point of snapping. And that's even before the budget cuts.

The Assembly Government has already pulled some big projects - the M4 relief road has been mothballed - but it's going to have to make more. It will be interesting to see how Jane Hutt, or her reshuffled replacement as Education Minister, reacts to the tightening of the financial corset. Will they try to salami slice the budget or will they simply shelve or abandon key projects?