ATL

Northern Ireland

Director of ATL Northern Ireland, Mark Langhammer, looks at the possible consequences of the general election for Northern Ireland

At the time of writing, it is unclear whether Northern Ireland's devolved government will be operative, in cold storage or dead by the time this is published. Education policy in Northern Ireland, under devolved government, is diverging with the arguably more ideological 'contestability' of the English experience.

The move is to 'front load' education funding towards the youngest, the revised curriculum, the pupil entitlement framework, collaborative area planning, recognition of social balance in school admissions — the direction of travel in education policy is generally positive.

So, the Westminster elections don't matter, then? Not quite. There may be a hung parliament, in which case our local politicians will have more leverage. A Conservative majority could mean more attention, more quickly, on addressing the UK fiscal deficit. That will affect the devolved areas' Barnett subvention calculation. In short, our slice of the pie may remain the same, but the pie itself is likely to shrink.

The election outcome in Scotland could well affect Northern Ireland even more. While support towards outright independence appears to have receded, movement towards maximised autonomy in tax affairs is more than conceivable. And tax autonomy will undoubtedly disrupt Barnett, and provide scope for devolved autonomy on pay. With high teacher unemployment, market forces would reduce pay for teachers.

The delayed (and not yet agreed) establishment of a single employer, the Education and Skills Authority, represents an opportunity — a more rational trade union bargaining environment and at least the potential for a collaborative phase in industrial relations.